More than 57 million voters in the US have already cast their ballots for the 2024 election, setting records in several states and fueling optimism on both sides, though experts caution that interpreting the data can be tricky.
Current opinion polls show Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump neck-and-neck, particularly in seven battleground states that are often decisive in close elections.
Harris’s campaign has actively promoted early voting, with her running mate Tim Walz, President Joe Biden, and former President Barack Obama all having voted early.
While Trump initially expressed skepticism about early voting—without evidence—he has since changed his tune, urging his supporters to vote when it is convenient for them. As of Thursday, around 62 million people had voted early, representing nearly 40% of the total votes cast in 2020.
In Georgia, over 3.5 million residents had already voted, which amounts to 45% of registered voters and sets a new record, according to Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. He anticipates that up to 70% of Georgians will vote early in this election.
Similar trends are emerging in other swing states, including North Carolina.
Brad Hines, a 73-year-old police officer, was among those who voted on the first day of early voting in Wisconsin. “I wanted to get my vote done early and encourage others to do the same,” he said, emphasizing the importance of the election for the future of democracy.
“There’s a strong intensity among voters regarding the candidates, and states have really enhanced their early voting processes since 2020,” noted Julian Zelizer, a Princeton University professor.
The high early voter turnout allows campaigns to better focus their efforts, according to Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who is monitoring early voting closely. “Each early voter reduces the number of people on their contact list, simplifying their outreach efforts,” he stated in a podcast. However, he cautioned that making projections at this stage can be challenging.
