As the conflict drags on, one thing is clear: Netanyahu is playing a high-stakes game, and the consequences will be felt far beyond the borders of the Gaza Strip.
By Iftikhar Gilani
Thousands of people had flocked to Didim, a town in the western Turkish province of Aydın on the Aegean coast, for the funeral of Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi, the 26-year-old Turkish-American activist killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank. Prior to this, prayers for her funeral were held in Istanbul, which were also attended by a large crowd.
Both ceremonies emphasised the massive public reaction and anger at the Israeli crackdown on Palestinians, particularly in the Gaza Strip, where more than 41,000 people have been killed in the past 10 months.
The crowds demanded an immediate ceasefire. While the US had already proposed a plan for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in May, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be strategically waiting and possibly prolonging the conflict to achieve personal political and strategic goals.
Despite numerous diplomatic efforts, including US intervention, Netanyahu has continually upped the ante, leaving many to wonder what his true motives are.
A few months ago, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken optimistically declared that a ceasefire in Gaza proposed by President Joe Biden was about to be implemented. But despite these assurances, the violence and bombardments in Gaza continue unabated. The situation has even escalated as Israel has intensified its military operations not only in the Gaza Strip but also in the West Bank, even killing an American citizen in the process.
Negotiations on a ceasefire and hostage exchange were held in Cairo and Doha but were unsuccessful. Netanyahu’s stance, particularly his insistence on maintaining Israeli control over key areas such as the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt, has become a major obstacle.
Netanyahu’s position has not only alienated international actors but has also led to internal disputes. Critics within the Israeli military and security authorities argue that Israeli troops do not need to maintain a permanent presence in Gaza to prevent arms smuggling.
A senior official at the Emirates Policy Centre, Hani Suleiman, sums up the growing frustration by questioning the endgame in Gaza.
“What is the endgame? Eventually, every war comes to an end and the guns will fall silent. Therefore, it is necessary to deal with the situation that will arise — what happens the day after?” Suleiman’s remarks emphasise the broader question of what future awaits Gaza after the military operations end.
Delaying Truce to Feed Personal Interest
Critics argue that Netanyahu’s reluctance to reach a ceasefire is due to personal and political interests. Observers suspect that Netanyahu is deliberately delaying the ceasefire negotiations in the hope that former US President Donald Trump will return to the White House after the 2024 US presidential elections.
Trump’s presidency has been characterised by policies that accommodate Netanyahu’s tough stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a return to power could provide Netanyahu with a diplomatic shield against international pressure.
Others point to Netanyahu’s desire not to have to answer for his government’s failures in dealing with the attacks of 7 October 2023. There are also concerns about Netanyahu’s legal problems, including the corruption allegations that continue to plague his government. The extension of the war could serve as a political distraction and keep Netanyahu’s government intact until the next Israeli elections in October 2026.
According to analysts, Netanyahu has outlined a long-term vision for the Gaza Strip that mirrors Israel’s strategy in the West Bank. In this scenario, Israel would maintain security control over the Gaza Strip, while the local Palestinian authorities would take over day-to-day administration.
Essentially, Netanyahu envisions a “low-cost occupation” in which Israel oversees security and border control and conducts military operations when necessary, without taking on the economic and political burden of direct administration.
However, this plan has met with considerable criticism, even in Netanyahu’s own political and military circles. The Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, General Herzi Halevi, has warned that the lack of a clear disengagement strategy could undermine Israel’s military successes in the Gaza Strip.
Furthermore, the American administration, led by President Biden, has rejected the idea of a renewed occupation of the Gaza Strip. However, Netanyahu appears to be counting on Trump’s return to power to realise his vision for Gaza.
Important Actors
While Israel remains the most influential player in shaping Gaza’s future, it is by no means the only one. Palestinian factions, Egypt and the wider international community also play a crucial role in the ceasefire negotiations and post-war settlement.
The most notable of these actors is Hamas.
According to experts, the group remains an important player despite its significant military losses during the conflict. Hamas continues to exert considerable influence over the Gaza Strip and could thwart any Israeli plans to re-establish its own civilian authority in the region.
However, Hamas alone cannot prevent Netanyahu from realising his vision for the Gaza Strip. The group will probably have to join forces with other Palestinian factions to form a united front against the Israeli occupation.
Egypt has also consistently rejected all Israeli attempts to maintain control over the Philadelphi Corridor or the Rafah border crossing, which are vital to Egypt’s national security interests. Due to Egypt’s geopolitical concerns, it is unlikely that Tel Aviv will be able to pursue its plans without significant concessions.
Netanyahu’s vision for Gaza depends not only on regional dynamics, but also on the outcome of the 2024 US elections, and a Trump presidency would likely give Netanyahu the political backing he needs to move forward with his plans.
Trump’s 2020 “Peace to Prosperity” plan, which envisions economic development and recognition of Israel by its Arab neighbours, including Saudi Arabia, as a path to peace in the Middle East, aligns with Netanyahu’s long-term goals for Gaza.
However, a democratic government under Kamala Harris (should she win the election) would likely prioritise ending the conflict and pursuing a two-state solution. This approach would fundamentally contradict Netanyahu’s plans and further complicate the ceasefire negotiations and the future of the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu’s strategy in Gaza appears to be driven by both personal political interests and a broader vision for the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. By delaying the ceasefire and prolonging the war, Netanyahu is positioning himself to reshape Gaza in a way that is consistent with his long-term strategic goals.
However, this approach comes at a high price, both for the Palestinians, who continue to suffer from Israeli military action, and for Israel itself, as internal and international opposition to Netanyahu’s policies grows.
It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu’s gamble will pay off. Whether he can realise his vision for Gaza will depend on a delicate balance of domestic political dynamics, regional pressure and the outcome of the 2024 US elections. As the conflict drags on, one thing is clear: Netanyahu is playing a high-stakes game and the consequences will reverberate far beyond Gaza’s borders.
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