As the region stands at a crossroads, the hope is that these elections will at least give the suffocating population a bit of oxygen to survive.
By Iftikhar Gilani
Nearly a decade after the last assembly elections, the Indian-administered part of Jammu and Kashmir is bracing for a pivotal moment in its political history. At the behest of the Supreme Court directions, the Indian government is conducting elections for the region’s assembly.
In August 2019, the state was also dismembered into two union territories, and the special status that it had enjoyed since 1947 was revoked.
The elections will be held in three phases on September 18, September 25, and October 1, with the counting of votes and the announcement of results scheduled for October 4.
The demand for elections has been a long-standing one. Political parties, civil society groups, and local leaders have repeatedly called for the restoration of the assembly to allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to govern themselves.
In the first phase, polling will take place in 24 seats, covering South Kashmir and the Chenab Valley region of Jammu. These areas have historically been hotbeds of political activity and have seen significant unrest over the past few years.
The second phase will involve 26 seats, including those in Central Kashmir and the Pir Panjal region of Jammu. The final phase will see voting in 16 seats in North Kashmir and 39 seats in Jammu.
The areas in the final phase include many of the Hindu-majority constituencies where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has traditionally had strong support.
By placing the Hindu-majority constituencies of Jammu in the last phase, the BJP aims to maximise its influence and impact. This will allow Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and the cadres of the the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to campaign extensively, ensuring a strong showing for the party.
The BJP’s focus on these constituencies highlights its strategy to secure Hindu votes and dominate the region’s political landscape.
The BJP’s campaign in Jammu and Kashmir is driven by a clear objective: to consolidate its power and expand its influence. The party has been working diligently to woo Hindu voters in the Jammu region, a strategy that has paid off in previous elections.
The BJP’s stronghold in Jammu has been a critical factor in its success, and the party is determined to maintain and build upon this base.
To achieve its goals, the BJP has placed RSS leader Ram Madhav in charge of the election campaign. Madhav is known for his organisational skills to mobilise Hindu nationalist elements closely aligned with the BJP.
His appointment signals the party’s intent to mobilise its resources and deploy its cadres effectively to secure a victory.
The BJP’s strategy involves not only rallying support in the Hindu-majority areas but also making inroads into Muslim-majority constituencies by fracturing Muslim votes and consolidating Hindu votes.
Critics argue that the party’s focus on Hindu voters and its use of religious rhetoric risk deepening communal divisions and alienating the region’s Muslim population.
The Delimitation Commission appointed by the government few years ago has already done gerrymandering of the assmbly seats in such a way, that it gives advantage to the Hindu majority Jammu region.
Optimism and Skepticism: Public Participation and Concerns
Despite these challenges, there is a sense of cautious optimism among the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The prospect of elections offers a glimmer of hope for the restoration of democracy and end suffocation in the region.
It can be safely predicted that voter turnout may be higher than in previous elections, marking a departure from the apathy and disinterest that have characterised past polls in Jammu and Kashmir.
Since the outbreak of militancy in 1989, voter turnout, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, has been low, often ranging between two and five per cent. This was due to a combination of factors, including calls for election boycotts by pro-freedom groups, fear of violence, and a general sense of disillusionment with the political process.
In the past, political parties such as the National Conference have taken advantage of low voter turnout by mobilising their cadres to vote early in the day, ensuring that their limited supporters vote before any disruptions could occur.
This tactic allowed them to secure victories in their strongholds, even as other areas boycotted the polls. However, the upcoming elections could see a different dynamic, with increased public engagement and a desire for change.
The history of elections in Jammu and Kashmir is marked by controversy and contention. Since the first assembly elections were held in 1951, the region has experienced a complex and often turbulent political journey.
The elections of 1977, held under the leadership of Sheikh Abdullah, are widely regarded as the first fair and transparent elections in the region’s history.
This election saw widespread public participation and marked a turning point in the relationship between New Delhi and Srinagar.
However, the rigged elections of 1987, which were marred by allegations of fraud and manipulation, had a profound impact on the region, reversing all gains accrued 1977 onwards.
The perceived lack of legitimacy of the electoral process fuelled discontent and led to the outbreak of militancy in 1989. The violence and instability that followed have cast a long shadow over subsequent elections, with many voters remaining sceptical of the political process.
Altered Framework
The current elections are taking place in a vastly different context. The abrogation of Article 370, the revocation of the state’s special status, and the reorganisation of the region into Union Territories have fundamentally altered the political framework.
The elections will be held under a new electoral map, which has been drawn up through a process of delimitation. This redrawing of constituency boundaries has been a contentious issue, with accusations of gerrymandering and manipulation to favour the BJP.
The new delimitation of assembly constituencies has created a complex and often confusing electoral map. Areas that were once part of a single constituency have been split, and new constituencies have been created, sometimes with little regard for geographical continuity or community coherence.
The changes in constituency boundaries have significant implications for political representation and the balance of power. The delimitation has increased six seats in the Jammu region, which has a significant Hindu population, while adding only one seat to the Kashmir Valley, despite its larger population.
This has raised concerns that the delimitation process has been used to dilute the political influence of the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and to bolster the representation of the Hindu-majority areas in Jammu.
The political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir is dominated by several key players, each with its own agenda and vision for the future. The two main parties, the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have long been the principal rivals in the region.
Both parties have a strong support base in the Kashmir Valley and have traditionally advocated for greater autonomy and self-governance.
The National Conference, led by Farooq Abdullah and his son Omar Abdullah, has positioned itself as a defender of Kashmir’s special status and a champion of the rights of the Kashmiri people.
The party has called for the restoration of Article 370 and has vowed to oppose any attempts to dilute the region’s autonomy. The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, has similarly pledged to fight for the restoration of the state’s special status and has called for dialogue and reconciliation to address the region’s challenges.
Both parties have announced their intention to pass a resolution against the actions taken by the central government on August 5, 2019. This resolution is a key point of their election manifestos, highlighting their commitment to reversing the changes imposed by the central government and restoring the region’s autonomy.
The BJP, on the other hand, has positioned itself as a party of development and national integration. The party has argued that the abrogation of Article 370 was necessary to bring Jammu and Kashmir in line with the rest of India and to promote economic development and stability.
Power Dynamics and Governance
A significant factor in the upcoming elections is the role of the Lieutenant Governor, who has been granted extensive powers by the central government.
The Lieutenant Governor’s authority extends to key areas of governance, including security, administration, and law and order.
This concentration of power in the hands of the Lieutenant Governor has raised concerns about the autonomy of the elected government and the ability of the Chief Minister to govern effectively.
The central government’s decision to empower the Lieutenant Governor is seen as a way to maintain control over the region, even if the BJP does not win a majority.
By ensuring that the Lieutenant Governor has the authority to oversee and intervene in the actions of the elected government, the central government can effectively limit the powers of the Chief Minister and the assembly.
This arrangement has led to fears that the assembly will be little more than a rubber stamp, with real power remaining in the hands of the Lieutenant Governor.
Governor Manoj Sinha’s recent statements have further fuelled these concerns. In an interview, Sinha declared that he would not hesitate to use his powers to intervene if the actions of the elected government were seen as challenging the integrity of the country. This assertion underscores the central government’s determination to maintain a firm grip on the region and to ensure that its policies and decisions are implemented without opposition.
Voter Sentiment: Hopes and Fears
As the election date approaches, the people of Jammu and Kashmir are grappling with a mix of hopes and fears. On one hand, the elections offer a chance for the restoration of democracy and the return of self-governance.
For many, the prospect of having elected representatives who can advocate for their interests and address their concerns is a source of optimism. There is a desire for change and a hope that the new assembly will be able to bring about positive developments in the region.
On the other hand, there are deep-seated fears about the outcome of the elections and the future of the region. The political uncertainty and the ongoing tensions between the central government and the local population have created an atmosphere of anxiety and apprehension.
The heavy-handed approach of the central government, the restrictions on civil liberties, and the frequent deployment of security forces have left many feeling disillusioned and alienated.
The question of whether these elections can bring real peace and stability to Jammu and Kashmir remains unanswered.
While the Modi government has claimed that its policies have brought peace to the region, many see this as a superficial calm, masking underlying tensions and grievances. The elections will be a test of the government’s claims and an opportunity for the people to express their will.
The elections alone will not only bring peace to the region, which needs to address larger issues between India and Pakistan as well. As the region stands at a crossroads, the hope is that these elections will mark the beginning of a new chapter, one that starts efforts to bring a sense of lasting peace and stability and give the suffocating population a bit of oxygen to survive. ####
