Impact of Annexation on Jammu and Kashmir: Five Years On
Despite the government’s optimistic narrative, a group of 20 eminent Indian citizens have contested claims, arguing that the region has been plunged into both political and economic uncertainty
By Iftikhar Gilani
On August 5, 2019, the Indian government took the monumental step of abolishing the constitutional special status of Jammu and Kashmir. This move not only annexed the region into the Indian Union but also divided it into two centrally administered territories.
The government claims this decision has ushered in an era of peace and prosperity, citing increased investment and a business-friendly climate. It argues that restrictions under Articles 370 and 35A, which prevented outsiders from purchasing land or settling in the state, had previously hindered economic development.
This year, the celebration is even more pronounced as the Supreme Court, last year December, upheld the abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. However, the court also directed the government to conduct assembly elections by September and to outline a roadmap for restoring statehood to the region.
Despite the government’s optimistic narrative, a group of 20 eminent Indian citizens have contested these claims, arguing that the region has been plunged into uncertainty. Their report, authored by former senior judges, high-ranking officials, retired army officers, and historian Ramchandra Guha, paints a starkly different picture.
Economic Stagnation and Decline
The report, titled Jammu and Kashmir: A Human Rights Agenda for an Elected Administration, challenges the government’s economic assertions. It states that the region’s economy has not yet recovered to its 2019 levels, let alone its progress.
Between April 2015 and March 2019, the state’s net domestic product (NSDP) grew at an average rate of 13.28%. Post-annexation, this growth has slowed to an average of 8.73%. The per capita NSDP growth rate has similarly declined from 12.31% (2015-2019) to 8.41% (2019-2024).
Even during the 2016-2017 period, when Kashmir was engulfed in unrest, economic growth was more robust than in the years following the abrogation. The report also highlights that new laws favor national companies over local industries, leading to significant dispossession. Despite receiving investment proposals worth Rs 901.82 billion between 2019 and 2023, actual investments have only amounted to Rs 53.19 billion.
Kashmir’s fruit growers are particularly concerned about the Union Finance Ministry’s 20% cut in import duties on walnuts and apples, compounded by the influx of fruit from China, Turkiye, and the US.
The reduction of import duties on Washington apples from 70% to 50% has further harmed local apple growers, affecting around 350,000 people. Additionally, the production of Kashmir’s famed saffron has plummeted, with output declining from 8 tonnes in 2010-2011 to just 2.6 tonnes in 2023-2024—a 67.5% decrease. The area under saffron cultivation has also shrunk significantly.
The April 2023-March 2024 period saw the highest unemployment rate in India within Jammu and Kashmir, with youth unemployment reaching 18.3%.
The report highlights a significant issue that has escalated over the past five years. It reveals that Kashmir has become one of the top regions for drug abuse, with an estimated 900,000 drug addicts.
Additionally, approximately 55.72 per cent of the population in Jammu and Kashmir suffers from depression, with the highest incidence among youth aged 15-35 years. In rural areas, the depression rate among women is about 93.10 per cent, compared to 6.8 per cent among men.
The suicide rate has risen from 2.10 per 100,000 in 2020 to 2.40 in 2023-2024. In 2022, Jammu and Kashmir recorded the highest rate of suicide attempts. Following the abrogation of Article 370 and the COVID-19 pandemic, the suicide rate increased steadily between 2019 and 2021.
Common methods of suicide include drug overdose and drowning, where rescue opportunities are minimal. Additionally, 16 students from Jammu and Kashmir studying outside the state have committed suicide, underscoring the weakness of the mental health infrastructure.
The state, with a population of 12.5 million, has only 41 psychiatrists, most of whom are based in Srinagar and Jammu, with only five or six working at the district level.
Political Uncertainty and Governance Issues
Despite assurances from the Modi government to the Supreme Court that elections would be held by September, there are indications of potential postponement. The report alleges that the government has attempted to gerrymander constituencies to ensure the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gains a foothold in the region. For instance, the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency has been redrawn to include districts from Jammu, altering the voter demographic significantly.
The forum’s report also criticizes the distribution of assembly seats, with Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, home to 56.15% of the state’s population, receiving only 47 seats, while Hindu-majority Jammu, comprising 43.85% of the population, has been allocated 43 seats. This, they argue, violates the democratic principle of voter equality.
The report expressed concern over the enhanced powers granted to the lieutenant governor ahead of the elections. Even if an elected government comes to power, it would remain powerless, as the lieutenant governor retains control over police, bureaucracy, the attorney general, and prosecutor services. All appointments and related decisions require the lieutenant governor’s approval, with no recourse for the Council of Ministers.
The lieutenant governor’s representative is also mandated to attend all cabinet meetings, and ministers must submit their schedules and meeting agendas in advance.
The report highlights the precarious state of judicial and press freedoms in the region. Between 2020 and December 2023, over 2,700 individuals were detained under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Public Safety Act (PSA), with 1,100 detained as ‘overground workers’ or facilitators of militancy. While there has been a slight increase in judges cancelling arrests or granting bail in 2023-2024, the situation remains dire.
According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, seven journalists were imprisoned in India as of January 19, 2024, four of whom were from Jammu and Kashmir. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) had planned to hold public hearings on human rights violations in February 2024, but these were indefinitely postponed. The fate of 1,164 cases registered with the NHRC between October 2019 and December 2022 remains unknown, as does the status of 765 complaints pending with the State Human Rights Commission when it was dissolved in 2019.
A Bleak Outlook
The report concludes with a grim outlook for the region, questioning the Modi government’s commitment to restoring statehood. While Solicitor General Tushar Mehta indicated in December 2023 that full statehood might take some time, recent statements by Home Minister Amit Shah suggest that the insurgency must be completely controlled by 2026, hinting at further delays.
Without genuine control over their administration and the ability to hold officials accountable, the existence of a democratically elected government in Jammu and Kashmir remains questionable.
The members of the forum, which includes former Home Secretary Gopal Pillai, former Kashmir negotiator Radha Kumar, and former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, assert that the Union administration is considering a hybrid governance model similar to that of Delhi, which would perpetuate the current state of disenfranchisement and uncertainty.
The authors of this report also include former Supreme Court judge Justice (retd) Roma Pal, former Chief Justice of Delhi High Court, Justice (retd) AP Shah and Chief Justice of Orissa High Court, Justice (retd) Bilal Nazki and former judge of Jammu and Kashmir High Court, Justice (retd) Hasnain Masoudi, former judge of the Patna High Court Justice (retd) Anjana Prakash, besides Major-General Ashok Mehta (retd), Air Vice-Marshal Kapil Kak (retd), Lieutenant-General H S Panag (retd) and Colonel Yoginder Kandhari (retd) and others.Despite the government’s optimistic narrative, a group of 20 eminent Indian citizens have contested claims, arguing that the region has been plunged into both political and economic uncertainty
By Iftikhar Gilani
On August 5, 2019, the Indian government took the monumental step of abolishing the constitutional special status of Jammu and Kashmir. This move not only annexed the region into the Indian Union but also divided it into two centrally administered territories.
The government claims this decision has ushered in an era of peace and prosperity, citing increased investment and a business-friendly climate. It argues that restrictions under Articles 370 and 35A, which prevented outsiders from purchasing land or settling in the state, had previously hindered economic development.
This year, the celebration is even more pronounced as the Supreme Court, last year December, upheld the abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. However, the court also directed the government to conduct assembly elections by September and to outline a roadmap for restoring statehood to the region.
Despite the government’s optimistic narrative, a group of 20 eminent Indian citizens have contested these claims, arguing that the region has been plunged into uncertainty. Their report, authored by former senior judges, high-ranking officials, retired army officers, and historian Ramchandra Guha, paints a starkly different picture.
Economic Stagnation and Decline
The report, titled Jammu and Kashmir: A Human Rights Agenda for an Elected Administration, challenges the government’s economic assertions. It states that the region’s economy has not yet recovered to its 2019 levels, let alone its progress.
Between April 2015 and March 2019, the state’s net domestic product (NSDP) grew at an average rate of 13.28%. Post-annexation, this growth has slowed to an average of 8.73%. The per capita NSDP growth rate has similarly declined from 12.31% (2015-2019) to 8.41% (2019-2024).
Even during the 2016-2017 period, when Kashmir was engulfed in unrest, economic growth was more robust than in the years following the abrogation. The report also highlights that new laws favor national companies over local industries, leading to significant dispossession. Despite receiving investment proposals worth Rs 901.82 billion between 2019 and 2023, actual investments have only amounted to Rs 53.19 billion.
Kashmir’s fruit growers are particularly concerned about the Union Finance Ministry’s 20% cut in import duties on walnuts and apples, compounded by the influx of fruit from China, Turkiye, and the US.
The reduction of import duties on Washington apples from 70% to 50% has further harmed local apple growers, affecting around 350,000 people. Additionally, the production of Kashmir’s famed saffron has plummeted, with output declining from 8 tonnes in 2010-2011 to just 2.6 tonnes in 2023-2024—a 67.5% decrease. The area under saffron cultivation has also shrunk significantly.
The April 2023-March 2024 period saw the highest unemployment rate in India within Jammu and Kashmir, with youth unemployment reaching 18.3%.
The report highlights a significant issue that has escalated over the past five years. It reveals that Kashmir has become one of the top regions for drug abuse, with an estimated 900,000 drug addicts.
Additionally, approximately 55.72 per cent of the population in Jammu and Kashmir suffers from depression, with the highest incidence among youth aged 15-35 years. In rural areas, the depression rate among women is about 93.10 per cent, compared to 6.8 per cent among men.
The suicide rate has risen from 2.10 per 100,000 in 2020 to 2.40 in 2023-2024. In 2022, Jammu and Kashmir recorded the highest rate of suicide attempts. Following the abrogation of Article 370 and the COVID-19 pandemic, the suicide rate increased steadily between 2019 and 2021.
Common methods of suicide include drug overdose and drowning, where rescue opportunities are minimal. Additionally, 16 students from Jammu and Kashmir studying outside the state have committed suicide, underscoring the weakness of the mental health infrastructure.
The state, with a population of 12.5 million, has only 41 psychiatrists, most of whom are based in Srinagar and Jammu, with only five or six working at the district level.
Political Uncertainty and Governance Issues
Despite assurances from the Modi government to the Supreme Court that elections would be held by September, there are indications of potential postponement. The report alleges that the government has attempted to gerrymander constituencies to ensure the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gains a foothold in the region. For instance, the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency has been redrawn to include districts from Jammu, altering the voter demographic significantly.
The forum’s report also criticizes the distribution of assembly seats, with Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, home to 56.15% of the state’s population, receiving only 47 seats, while Hindu-majority Jammu, comprising 43.85% of the population, has been allocated 43 seats. This, they argue, violates the democratic principle of voter equality.
The report expressed concern over the enhanced powers granted to the lieutenant governor ahead of the elections. Even if an elected government comes to power, it would remain powerless, as the lieutenant governor retains control over police, bureaucracy, the attorney general, and prosecutor services. All appointments and related decisions require the lieutenant governor’s approval, with no recourse for the Council of Ministers.
The lieutenant governor’s representative is also mandated to attend all cabinet meetings, and ministers must submit their schedules and meeting agendas in advance.
The report highlights the precarious state of judicial and press freedoms in the region. Between 2020 and December 2023, over 2,700 individuals were detained under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Public Safety Act (PSA), with 1,100 detained as ‘overground workers’ or facilitators of militancy. While there has been a slight increase in judges cancelling arrests or granting bail in 2023-2024, the situation remains dire.
According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, seven journalists were imprisoned in India as of January 19, 2024, four of whom were from Jammu and Kashmir. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) had planned to hold public hearings on human rights violations in February 2024, but these were indefinitely postponed. The fate of 1,164 cases registered with the NHRC between October 2019 and December 2022 remains unknown, as does the status of 765 complaints pending with the State Human Rights Commission when it was dissolved in 2019.
A Bleak Outlook
The report concludes with a grim outlook for the region, questioning the Modi government’s commitment to restoring statehood. While Solicitor General Tushar Mehta indicated in December 2023 that full statehood might take some time, recent statements by Home Minister Amit Shah suggest that the insurgency must be completely controlled by 2026, hinting at further delays.
Without genuine control over their administration and the ability to hold officials accountable, the existence of a democratically elected government in Jammu and Kashmir remains questionable.
The members of the forum, which includes former Home Secretary Gopal Pillai, former Kashmir negotiator Radha Kumar, and former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, assert that the Union administration is considering a hybrid governance model similar to that of Delhi, which would perpetuate the current state of disenfranchisement and uncertainty.
The authors of this report also include former Supreme Court judge Justice (retd) Roma Pal, former Chief Justice of Delhi High Court, Justice (retd) AP Shah and Chief Justice of Orissa High Court, Justice (retd) Bilal Nazki and former judge of Jammu and Kashmir High Court, Justice (retd) Hasnain Masoudi, former judge of the Patna High Court Justice (retd) Anjana Prakash, besides Major-General Ashok Mehta (retd), Air Vice-Marshal Kapil Kak (retd), Lieutenant-General H S Panag (retd) and Colonel Yoginder Kandhari (retd) and others.
