The results of 2024 general elections have created cracks in the possible ruling structure of Pakistan. The unprecedented efforts were made to stop PTI from winning the elections. PTI leader Imran Khan was not only put behind the bars but there was media blackout of his statements. Many cases were decided before the elections in which he was sentenced. The PTI barred from using its iconic symbol bat in the election campaign. Despite all these efforts, the PTI voters came out in big numbers on the election da in Punjab and KP province. PTI emerged as the largest party.
The results of February 08 elections were announced in installments. In the initial results, PTI was cruising to victory in the results on first day but on the second day PML-N gradually started to improve and came close to PTI. PML-N supreme leader Nawaz Sharif made the victory speech on February 09 and announced to nominate his young brother Shahbaz Sharif for the prime minister.
All the prominent political analysts were predicting that the PML-N and PPP will form a coalition government after the elections but their analysis proved wrong when PPP announced not to join the federal coalition after the two long meeting of its Central Executive Committee (CEC). Both PPP and PML-N were allies and were part of the coalition government came into power in April 2022 and ruled Pakistan till August 2023. This process didn’t stop here but another coalition partner JUI-F leader also announced to sit on the opposition benches.
Maulana Fazal Ur Rehman’s explosive press conference on election rigging send ripples. The political situation became uncertain even before the formations of the governments. JUI-F chief also alleged the former army chief general Qamar Javed Bajwa for toppling the Imran Khan government through vote of no-confidence. JUI-F Amir also hinted to negotiate with arch rival PTI on the allegations of rigging. PTI delegation met with JUI-F chief to discuss the next strategy against rigging. The post-election situation is not only uncertain but also unusual and extraordinary in nature.
In this volatile political situation, Pakistani analysts are not focusing on some statements issued by the American officials. American State Department is continuously issuing statements regarding the alleged rigging in the elections. The State Department spokesman Mathew Miller demanding transparent investigations into the rigging allegations on daily basis. American statements are coming out when PML-N is trying to stitch together a coalition government in Islamabad. Pakistani foreign Office has criticised the statements of the American officials. We need to dig deep into the matter to find out why the American officials are giving these statements and not seem ready to accept the results of an election which likely to bring PML-N led government in Islamabad.
In 1977 the leftwing government of Zulifqar Ali Bhutto held elections but the opposition alliance Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) refused to accept results and launched protest movement against the Bhutto government. The Prime Minister Bhutto in his address to the joint session of the parliament said that “white Elephant is opposing me”. He meant that America has become enemy. The people who experienced that period or read about that knows that how many dollars were send to Pakistan. There were so many dollars in Pakistan that the Rupee gained value against US dollar. The American government supported the opposition parties in Pakistan against Bhutto government. American government not only stopped financial aid to Pakistan to put pressure on the Bhutto government but stopped the supply of tear gas. It has become an open secret now that America sponsored the anti-Bhutto movement in Pakistan. The same tactics were used against Bhutto that was used against Allende of Chile. Allende was Socialist who was elected Prime Minister of Chile. America didn’t accept the results of 1977 elections in which Bhutto was clearly a winner. As the result of a violent movement, General Zia imposed martial law on 5th July 1977 and topples the Bhutto government. America played crucial role in that situation. If we see the current situation in the historical perspective then we can understand that why America raising finger at the election results. America is ultimately raising finger at the legitimacy of PML-N led government. In 2014, Chinese president Chi Jin Ping was forced to postpone his visit to Pakistan because PTI organised sit-in at the federal capital Islamabad. In 2018, PTI government practically stooped work at many CPEC projects. China wanted to invest more than 72 billion US dollars through CPEC and spend nearly $36 billion from 2014 to 2018. CPEC is a strategically and economically an important project for both Pakistan and China. It is strategically important for China while economically vital for Pakistan.
It seems that china has gradually developed links with the powers centres in Pakistan since 2018 as America use to enjoy considerable influence in the power centres of Pakistan. It seems that China has developed certain influence in the power corridors of Pakistan. It has the power to lobby in Pakistan. So we can see the election results in this context. On February 08, PTI was cruising to a clear victor but on February 09 the results become somehow favourable for PML-N.
The important factor is that the power centres in Pakistan are still considering America as master but not ready to reject the Chinese interests. Now let’s see whether ‘white elephant’ or Panda has the last laugh. The situation will become clear in net few weeks. An independent and sovereign state never works for any global power but client states always remain vulnerable in the power struggle between different powers. Sovereign state chooses its own path of economic development and progress according to its own interests.
