Local elections are usually of lesser importance to the global public, but in Türkiye they are crucial and important democratic pillars after the president and parliament
On a bright Sunday, the last day of March, elderly Turk Murat Oktay queued outside a polling station in Ankara under the gentle embrace of the spring sun. His loyalty has been unbroken since 2001, as he staunchly supports the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
But on this day, his statements indicated a different course and symbolised a decisive change that could redefine Türkiye’s leadership and course.
Oktay’s voice, resonating with thoughtfulness and change, reflected the collective mood that evening as the vote count revealed unexpected results. Contrary to predictions, the results showed that Erdogan’s influence on Turkish politics is waning.
Local elections are usually of lesser importance to the global public, but in Türkiye they are crucial. In the absence of state elections, they become the most important democratic pillars after the president and parliament.
The importance of the office of mayor in Türkiye is therefore comparable to the role of the prime minister in India’s Uttar Pradesh or Pakistan’s Punjab provinces and emphasises the high political status associated with it.
The election result was a surprising defeat for President Erdogan’s AKP, as the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), which was founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, won the large urban areas. This was a marked difference from the previous year’s presidential elections, in which the CHP had received only 22 per cent of the vote.
This time, its victory extended to 14 major cities, 21 provinces and 337 district councils, winning 37.74 per cent of the vote nationwide. The ruling AKP only received 35.49 per cent of the vote nationwide. In the 2019 local elections, the AKP had received 42.87 per cent of the vote.
Key victories included the re-election of Ekrem İmamoğlu as mayor of Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş in Ankara, signalling a dramatic shift in Türkiye’s political dynamics. It is also significant that the CHP ran independently in these elections and achieved an astonishing 15 per cent increase in votes. Last year, it had contested the presidential elections as part of an alliance.
-Diverse political map
The political map of Türkiye is diverse and stretches across the Akadeniz region on the Mediterranean, Thrace, the Karadeniz region on the Black Sea and the Anatolian or Asia Minor lowlands. The CHP’s expansion into Central Anatolia is a sign of its growing appeal, despite its historical confinement to the Mediterranean coast. The AKP, on the other hand, has been able to maintain its support in the earthquake-stricken eastern regions, where people are still living in tents and containers.
Just as the founder of modern Türkiye, Mustafa Kemal Pasha, is credited with securing the country’s current borders, Erdogan is also credited with turning the country into an economic powerhouse and bringing people’s lifestyles up to European standards in terms of infrastructure. He is also credited with bringing the backward region of Anatolia and Karadeniz into line with the elite of the Mediterranean.
However, his long tenure and the economic problems that have plagued the country have left the people disillusioned with his rule.
Erdogan’s admission of defeat and his commitment to democratic principles was remarkable and represented a rare concession in Turkish politics. This election signalled not only a change in leadership but also a profound shift in Türkiye’s political and social fabric, signalling a nation yearning for a new direction.
Türkiye is on the cusp of a new era that reflects a yearning for accountability, inclusivity and a democratic model of governance. The message of the election is clear: people are demanding change and governance that meets their aspirations and opens a new chapter in Türkiye’s political history.
Another important outcome of these elections is the emergence of a new Islamist force, signalling a possible change of political direction in Türkiye. The once forgotten Refa Party, founded by the late Prime Minister Najmuddin Erbakan, has been revived by his son Ali Fateh Erbakan under the banner of the New Welfare Party or New Refa Party. The New Refa, which initially ran alongside President Erdoğan in the presidential elections, has since gone its own way.
In the last nine months, its membership has grown to six hundred thousand across the country and it received 6.19 per cent of the vote in these elections. It is now the third largest political force in the country and has overtaken the Kurdish Democratic Party.
The party has taken control of one major city, two provinces and 69 districts, achieving a significant 20 to 30 per cent of the vote in some areas.
The party’s performance is partly due to public dissatisfaction with the Erdoğan government, particularly its stance on international issues such as the Gaza conflict and relations with Israel, which contrasts sharply with Türkiye’s proactive role in the Rohingya and Nagorno-Karabakh situations.
-Post Erdogan landscape
The post-Erdoğan landscape offers an open field in which the New Refa Party could have a significant impact on the right-wing electorate.
As Türkiye stands on the cusp of a new political era, calls for a renewed economic policy and a recalibrated role on the world stage are growing louder. This is not just about a change of leadership, but a profound transformation within the Turkish polity to promote a more inclusive and democratic society.
The message from voters is clear: they want a shift towards a government that reflects their aspirations and paves the way for a new chapter in Türkiye’s chequered political history. As the nation reflects on Erdogan’s two decades in power, which were characterised by significant economic and social progress, the question of his successor arises.
As Türkiye awaits its next head of state, the legacy of Atatürk and Erdogan, both of whom have shaped the country’s identity, becomes clear.
The question remains: who will lead Türkiye into this new era or replace Erdogan? İmamoğlu, Yavaş, or perhaps Fatih Erbakan? The future of Turkish politics, which is full of potential, is waiting for its next visionary leader.
