This debate is gaining momentum as Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) gears up for its convention next April
Iftikhar Gilani in Ankara
For over two decades, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the dominant force in Turkish politics. From his early days as prime minister to his current role as president, Erdoğan has shaped the country’s trajectory, leaving an indelible mark on its governance, society, and economy.
Yet, as he approaches the twilight of his presidency, the burning question remains: who will succeed him?
This debate is gaining momentum as Türkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) gears up for its convention next April next year, a gathering expected to play a pivotal role in defining the party’s future leadership.
While Erdoğan’s influence remains unshaken, his age—70—and hints of fatigue have ignited speculation about his eventual retirement or re-election.
The succession race is on, both within the AK Party and beyond, setting the stage for a crucial chapter in Türkiye’s modern political history.
The AK Party’s provincial meetings, which will continue until the year’s end, have surfaced several potential successors. Among them is Süleyman Soylu, the former interior minister and a prominent Erdoğan loyalist.
Soylu’s tenure was marked by a tough stance on security and his unflinching commitment to AK Party policies. While he commands significant support among the party’s conservative base, his polarizing style could prove a liability in broadening the AK Party’s appeal.
Another key figure is Hakan Fidan, Türkiye’s current foreign minister and a former intelligence chief. Known for his diplomatic acumen and behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, Fidan represents a quieter, more technocratic leadership style.
His strategic thinking and extensive experience on the global stage position him as a potential unifier within the party and a stabilizing figure for the country.
The family ties to Erdoğan also play a significant role in the succession debate. Selçuk Bayraktar, Erdoğan’s son-in-law and a celebrated drone magnate, has emerged as an unexpected contender.
Bayraktar’s association with Türkiye’s burgeoning defence industry gives him a unique edge, symbolizing innovation and national pride. However, critics argue that his candidacy could reignite accusations of nepotism within the party.
Once considered a natural heir to Erdoğan’s political dynasty, Berat Albayrak, another son-in-law, has stepped away from active politics. His withdrawal from public life has opened the field for others, intensifying the race to fill the leadership vacuum.
Erdogan Remains at Centre
Despite the growing list of contenders, Erdoğan remains at the centre of Türkiye’s political universe. In recent weeks, he has reignited discussions about his own potential fourth term, despite constitutional barriers.
“As long as God grants us life and our nation approves, we will continue to serve,” Erdoğan declared after a cabinet meeting, suggesting that his departure is far from guaranteed.
Türkiye’s constitution bars Erdoğan from running again unless parliament calls for an early election or a constitutional amendment is passed. His allies in the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have hinted at supporting such measures.
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli has suggested a constitutional referendum to enable Erdoğan’s re-election, emphasizing his indispensable role in steering Türkiye through turbulent times.
Erdoğan’s rhetoric has also invoked the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, to justify his prolonged rule.
Speaking at the Çankaya Mansion, Erdoğan suggested that had Atatürk governed Türkiye for another decade, the nation would have been far more resilient in the face of global challenges. By drawing this parallel, Erdoğan subtly positioned himself as a leader uniquely suited to continue shaping Türkiye’s future.
While Erdoğan’s grip on power remains firm, the AK Party faces mounting internal and external pressures. Disappointing results in local elections earlier this year have shaken the party’s confidence.
The loss of key mayoralties to opposition candidates, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, has emboldened Erdoğan’s critics and reignited debates about the AK Party’s long-term viability.
Erdoğan himself appeared visibly fatigued during the election cycle, referring to the March local polls as his “last election.”
This has fueled speculation within the party about his potential retirement and prompted various factions to rally behind their preferred successors.
For many party insiders, the upcoming convention is seen as a critical juncture for shaping the AK Party’s post-Erdoğan future.
Beyond the AK Party, the opposition is gearing up for its own leadership battle. Ekrem İmamoğlu, often touted as a potential challenger to the AK Party’s dominance, has emerged as a unifying figure for Türkiye’s fractured opposition.
However, his success will depend on his ability to build coalitions and navigate the complex alliances required to challenge the AK Party in 2028.
Transformative Years
Under Erdoğan’s leadership, the AK Party has overseen some of the most transformative years in Türkiye’s history. The military, once a dominant force in Turkish politics, has been brought under civilian control.
Economic reforms in the early years of Erdoğan’s rule lifted millions into the middle class. However, more recent challenges—soaring inflation, a currency crisis, and economic stagnation—have eroded much of that progress.
As the AK Party navigates these challenges, its choice of a successor will determine its ability to address the nation’s growing discontent.
Whether the party leans toward Soylu’s hardline conservatism, Fidan’s pragmatism, or Bayraktar’s modernist approach, the new leader will face the monumental task of revitalizing Türkiye’s political and economic fortunes.
Erdoğan’s eventual departure, whenever it occurs, will mark the end of an era for Türkiye. His leadership has defined the nation for over two decades, shaping its identity both domestically and on the global stage.
However, the succession debate reflects a broader reality: Türkiye is at a crossroads, grappling with economic uncertainty, shifting alliances, and a society increasingly divided over its future.
For now, the spotlight remains on the AK Party’s provincial meetings and the upcoming convention. These events will not only signal Erdoğan’s intentions but also reveal the emerging power dynamics within the party.
Whether Erdoğan remains at the helm or paves the way for a new leader, the decisions made in the coming months will shape Türkiye’s trajectory for years to come.
Whoever succeeds Erdoğan will inherit not only his formidable legacy but also the weight of leading a nation poised between its storied past and an uncertain future.
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