Modi’s Kashmir rally stands as a calculated move, a gambit aimed at checkmating adversaries and making Kashmir an issue in the rest of India to garner votes
As the political drums beat louder in anticipation of India’s forthcoming general elections, the landscape of electoral combat echoes in the mountains of Kashmir. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent rally at Bakshi Stadium in Srinagar on March 7 set the tone for the upcoming electoral spectacle.
Modi’s visit, laced with the vibrancy of a ruling party’s campaign and the gravity of Kashmir’s past and present, unfolded in a spectacle that was the first of its kind in the valley post the abrogation of Article 370.
Unlike his predecessors, whose presence in Srinagar often depended on the patronage of local parties, Modi’s rally was a statement of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) solitary political pilgrimage in the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir Valley. The last such Indian Prime Minister, who had used her might to conduct rallies in Kashmir was Indira Gandhi. In 1983, Gandhi herself coursed through the streets of Sopore, igniting political fervor and aspirations, a legacy Modi seems intent on rivaling. All other prime ministers, who so far have visited Kashmir had to piggyback their reception on the goodwill of local political parties be that National Conference (NC) or the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It is another matter, that the administration had to lose all its might to bring people marshalling, 900 state buses and directing government employees to present themselves as the audience. The administration’s choreography extended to districts afar, with Baramulla contributing a fleet of 145 buses to the cause.
The BJP’s ambitions in Kashmir are as crystal clear as the crisp Himalayan breeze. Modi’s rally was not just a public address; it was a clarion call for finding a political space for his Hindu nationalist party in the Muslim-majority region.
The rally’s subtext spoke volumes about the BJP’s targeted electoral strategy, drawing parallels with the Congress’s erstwhile maneuvers to secure the South Kashmir seat. Modi went two steps ahead to attempt to get this seat for his party in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Earlier a Delimitation Commission under Justice (retired) Ranjana Desi gerrymandered this seat and included the Rajouri and Poonch districts of Jammu division into this Kashmir division seat to dilute the Kashmiri character of this seat. The seat now has diverse communities such as the Gujjars, Bakarwals, Paharis, Dogras, and Punjabis. The BJP feels that these communities will easily catch its agenda and voice.
Another step that he took to influence this strategic seat was to include the Pahari population in the Scheduled Tribe list. This means that this Pahari community now will have seats reserved in the assembly, jobs and higher education. This facility was earlier only enjoyed by the Gujjar community in Jammu and Kashmir, due to the fact, that they were considered the most backward. This affirmative action was launched to get them at par with other communities.
This has created discontent among the Gujjar Bakarwal community as they will have to share this benefit with the Pahari community as well. The community’s longstanding exclusivity for reserved seats is now contested, creating ripples of resentment and claims of dilution of privileges.
According to the data, in this South Kashmir seat now in a total population of 26,31,000, there will be 14,80,000 Kashmiri ie 56.25 percent, Gujrur Bakrwal 19.81 percent, Pahari 19.84 percent, Dogra 0.47 percent and Punjabi 0.49 percent.
Many in Kashmir hoped that this rally may lead to revival of political atmosphere, which has been strangulated over past six years.
Yet, beyond the numbers and the strategized public gatherings lies the undeniable reality of a Kashmir seeking healing and a future forged in genuine political engagement. Observers caution against the perils of prolonged political alienation, a narrative the valley knows all too well. While peace may preside over the land, the silence, as some argue, bears semblance to that of a graveyard’s — a peace that demands the resurrection of political discourse and a pursuit of enduring resolutions.
As seven parties, including the BJP, prepare to test their electoral fortunes, the dynamics of democracy in Kashmir are set for a fascinating interplay. In the grand chessboard of Indian politics, Modi’s Kashmir rally stands as a calculated move, a gambit aimed at checkmating adversaries and making Kashmir an issue in the rest of India to garner votes. In the 2019 elections, he unleashed a campaign to teach Pakistan a lesson that got him a second term in office.
As the mountains stand silent witnesses to this unfolding drama, only time will tell if the electoral seeds sown in the cold Srinagar March will bear fruit for Modi in the warm embrace of the ballot box.
