In a region where alliances are fluid and power dynamics constantly shift, India’s strategic investments in Afghanistan and Central Asia may prove crucial in shaping the balance of power for years to come
By Iftikhar Gilani
When the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021, many anticipated that they would act as proxies for Pakistan, following a decades-long relationship that saw Islamabad sheltering and aiding the group during its fight against the US-led forces.
This perception alarmed New Delhi, which feared that a Taliban regime beholden to Pakistan could reignite security threats for India. Yet, over time, the Taliban have defied these assumptions, not only challenging Pakistan’s influence but also fostering a surprising closeness with India—reminiscent of the alignment New Delhi enjoyed with previous Afghan governments.
India’s approach toward Afghanistan under the Taliban has been defined by pragmatism. Despite not officially recognizing the Taliban government, New Delhi has engaged in steady diplomacy to protect its strategic and economic interests in the region.
A pivotal moment came in the 2024–25 Union Budget when India allocated ₹2 billion for aid to Afghanistan and maintained ₹1 billion for the Chabahar Port project in Iran, highlighting its focus on regional connectivity. While Chabahar is located in Iran, its primary purpose has always been to ensure India’s access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan.
Diplomatic engagements throughout 2024 demonstrated India’s growing interest in building ties with the Taliban. In March, J.P. Singh, Joint Secretary at India’s Ministry of External Affairs, met with Afghan businessmen and Taliban officials in Kabul. The discussions focused on bilateral trade, transit, and visa facilitation, with India emphasizing the use of the Chabahar Port to enhance commerce and connectivity. Afghan businessmen lauded India’s commitment, urging for further trade facilitation and greater investment opportunities.
This outreach was followed by multiple high-profile engagements, including an April meeting between an Indian gemstone trader, Nagar, and the Taliban Governor of Panjshir province. Nagar proposed investments in the province’s emerald mines, a sector the Taliban are eager to develop. Later in November, Singh held talks with the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to deepen trade relations, reaffirming India’s focus on humanitarian aid, healthcare, and infrastructure development.
By January 2025, the relationship reached a new milestone when Vikram Misri, India’s Foreign Secretary, met Muttaqi in Dubai. Their discussions touched on advancing trade, connectivity through Chabahar, and regional security cooperation. Despite not formally recognizing the Taliban regime, India’s steady engagement underscores its commitment to Afghanistan’s stability, driven by both strategic and security considerations.
Pakistan-Taliban Rift: An Opening for India
The warming of India-Taliban relations comes as Pakistan’s ties with the Taliban hit an all-time low. Islamabad, which viewed the Taliban’s return to power as a strategic victory, has been caught off guard by the group’s growing defiance. Disputes over the Durand Line, cross-border attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Afghan sovereignty have fueled tensions. In December 2024, Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province targeting TTP militants provoked a sharp response from the Taliban, who condemned the violation of Afghan territory.
This deteriorating relationship has created an opportunity for India to reestablish its influence in Afghanistan, a country it historically regarded as a strategic partner. The Taliban’s assurances to India that Afghan soil will not be used for anti-India activities have further boosted New Delhi’s confidence in engaging with the group.
India’s Strategic Assets in Central Asia
India’s increasing presence in Afghanistan is part of a broader strategy to strengthen its footprint in Central Asia. The country’s interest in the Farkhor and Ayni air bases in Tajikistan highlights this ambition.
- Farkhor Air Base: Located near the town of Farkhor in Tajikistan, just 130 km southeast of Dushanbe, Farkhor is India’s first military base outside its borders. Established in the early 2000s with Russian assistance, the base has historical significance. It was used by India to aid the Afghan Northern Alliance during their resistance against the Taliban. Injured fighters, including Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud, were treated at a military hospital India operated near the base. The base offers India strategic depth in the region and proximity to Afghanistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, providing a significant advantage in case of regional conflicts.
- Ayni Air Base: Also located in Tajikistan, Ayni serves as India’s second overseas airbase. Renovated with nearly $70 million in Indian investment between 2002 and 2010, Ayni now features a 3,200-meter runway and modern air defense systems. It has been jointly operated by the Indian and Tajik air forces since its operationalization in 2007. During the 2021 Afghan crisis, Ayni played a critical role in evacuating Indian nationals from Kabul. The base remains a cornerstone of India’s efforts to project power in Central Asia, though its operations require coordination with Russia and Tajikistan due to the latter’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
These bases not only provide India with a strategic foothold in the region but also enhance its ability to counterbalance Chinese and Pakistani influence in Central Asia.
The Chabahar Port in Iran continues to be central to India’s regional strategy. By bypassing Pakistan, Chabahar provides India with direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. In recent diplomatic discussions, the Taliban have emphasized the port’s importance for trade and regional connectivity. India’s sustained investment in Chabahar underscores its commitment to using the port as a gateway for humanitarian aid and economic engagement with Afghanistan.
Strategic Implications
India’s deepening engagement with Afghanistan under the Taliban signals a strategic recalibration in South Asia. While Pakistan grapples with a deteriorating relationship with the Taliban, India has leveraged this shift to secure its interests in the region. The Taliban’s outreach to India, combined with their assertiveness against Pakistan, reflects their desire to diversify partnerships and assert autonomy.
However, an Indian official said the relationship with the Taliban is not without challenges. He mentioned the group’s ties with extremist organizations like Al-Qaeda, its regressive policies on women’s rights, and its harsh governance style as areas of concern. Balancing these ethical dilemmas with strategic priorities will require deft diplomacy.
The reopening of India’s Kabul mission as a technical outpost, its humanitarian aid commitments, and its focus on infrastructure and trade signal a long-term investment in Afghanistan’s stability. Meanwhile, the strategic use of airbases in Tajikistan and the Chabahar Port enhances India’s ability to counter regional threats and expand its influence in Central Asia.
The Taliban’s surprising tilt toward India and their rift with Pakistan highlight the evolving dynamics of South Asia’s geopolitics. From being perceived as Pakistan’s proxies, the Taliban have emerged as independent actors willing to engage with India on trade, connectivity, and security.
For New Delhi, this presents both opportunities and challenges, as it seeks to leverage these shifts to secure its interests while navigating the complexities of dealing with the Taliban regime.
In a region where alliances are fluid and power dynamics constantly shift, India’s strategic investments in Afghanistan and Central Asia may prove crucial in shaping the balance of power for years to come.
